Real-Time Odds

Right Now
0 in 0
Odds of closing positive Monday
That's about a 77% probability of a positive close

Incorporates 1) real-time price and live back-testing of the probability of a price reversal under similar historical conditions, including A) the amount of time left in the trading day, and B) how much the ticker has already gained or lost over the day; 2) the historical odds of closing positive on this calendar date, and 3) the back-tested historical odds of a positive day today as a function of the performance of the previous trading days.

Patent Pending

Price (Quote)

Apple (AAPL)
433.26
-1.32 (-0.30%)

As of 7:25 AM. Quote delayed by 15 min.

Welcome to May

Today is May 19. Since 1984, AAPL has been positive 45% of the time in May, returning an average of 1.36%.

Seasonality Score this Month

(Proprietary risk-adjusted odds)

Incorporates 1) back-tested historical odds of closing positive this month, 2) the degree of variation (standard deviation) in the historical returns of the ticker over this period of the year, and 3) back-tested, weighted controls for recent overall market volatility.

Patent Pending

Historical Odds This Month

11/25Positive(45%)

Back-tested historical odds of closing positive this month.

Apple Price History

Average Monthly % Change Since 1984

Month Average Return % Positive Observation Period
January 5.35 65.52 29 Years
February 1.91 51.72 29 Years
March 3.98 55.17 29 Years
April 3.41 58.62 29 Years
May 1.36 44.83 29 Years
June -1.90 50.00 28 Years
July 3.00 53.57 28 Years
August 5.21 57.14 28 Years
September -2.97 39.29 28 Years
October 5.27 68.97 29 Years
November 2.71 51.72 29 Years
December 1.30 62.07 29 Years

Risk vs. Return Since Inception

Patent Pending

This figure, a staple of the hedge fund world, can be used in many ways. At its simplest, the figure shows the risk that you might buy the ticker at the wrong time of year. The X axis shows the degree of variance in the monthly returns of the ticker, where higher variance (tickers on the right half of the figure) means greater chances of buying the ticker in a month that results in a significant loss--even if the ticker is generally positive over long periods of time. The top left region of the figure is optimal: Tickers with high annual returns and low month-to-month variance in returns. The bottom right of the figure is the worst region: Tickers with very high month-to-month variation in returns and low overall annual returns. The bottom left region and the top right region are areas that are suitable for different investment strategies: If you can be satisfied with a lower overall return as the price of not having to worry about buying in a bad month of the year and taking a significant short-term loss, then the bottom left region is for you. If you can weather the month-to-month variations and not flinch at shorter term losses because you are willing to ride the stock to higher overall long term returns, then the top right region is more suitable for you.

Social News Scanner

Patent Pending

The latest tool of top Hedge Funds, social media signal scanning is the process of scanning the fast moving, live, real-time Twitter feeds of leading financial media and financial bloggers, for key mentions of a stock of interest, and analyzing (via natural language processing and term extraction) the context and sentiment of the stream of chatter surrounding that stock.

The Seasonal Odds Social News Scanner allows you to monitor the real-time Twitter accounts of leading financial media and financial bloggers for key mentions of a stock of interest, and for the social media pulse surrounding that stock, as well as important news about the company. Watch the Seasonal Odds Social News Scanner over the course of the day for key mentions of this stock, as well as for other information that could move the stock and markets as a whole.

Results for All Sources

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Results for Wall Street Journal

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Results for CNBC

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Results for Bloomberg

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Results for Financial Times

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Results for StockTwits

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Results for CNN Money

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Results for The Street

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Results for Bloomberg Businessweek

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Results for Harvard Business Review

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Results for Fortune Magazine

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Results for Forbes

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Results for Barron's

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Results for Fast Company

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Results for Associated Press

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Results for Reuters Business

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Results for Business News from The New York Times

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Results for New York Times Deal Book

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Results for USA TODAY Money

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Results for Financial Times Alphaville

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Results for Market Watch

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Results for The Motley Fool

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Results for Business Insider

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Results for Zero Hedge

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Results for Jim Cramer

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Sentiment of Financial Media and Financial Bloggers on Twitter: Apple

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Patent Pending

The sentiment of the conversation on Twitter surrounding Apple has recently been neutral.

This signal scans the live, real-time Twitter feeds of leading financial media and financial bloggers and analyzes, via proprietary natural language processing algorithms, the context and sentiment of the stream of chatter surrounding this stock. The greater the reading on this meter, the greater (more positive) the sentiment of the financial news media and financial blogger chatter surrounding this stock. This proprietary sentiment analysis signal has been back-tested and proven to in many cases anticipate near-term future price movements in this stock.

Hedge Fund Smart Money

The areas of the figure shaded green indicate that smart Hedge Fund money— Hedge Funds ranked in the Top 25 in the world by Institutional Investor—are accumulating this stock, as surfaced by an in-depth analysis of their 13F fillings. The size of the square in this figure corresponds to the relative size of a particular Hedge Fund’s position in this stock compared to all other Hedge Funds that hold the stock.